Sets the intent
Declares the market scope, policy, budget, authority, and stop conditions.
CONFIGURESThe continuity layer for recurring event markets
One bounded intent. Many markets. Every result connected.
A Circuit carries one set of rules across a declared sequence of markets. Each market gets its own Forecast and evidence record, while the intent keeps moving.
ILLUSTRATIVE CIRCUIT · ACTIVE INTENT
BTC · 15 MINUTESUse this Forecast source when the difference is at least 8 points. Stop after 2 losses.
8 markets$15 / market$100 total
- 01Market 1Forecast → RFT → abstainRESOLVED EVIDENCE
- 02Market 2Forecast → RFT → policyCURRENT ITERATION
- 03Market 3next eligible marketWAITING
One intent, repeated iterations
The Circuit persists. The evidence changes.
A Forecast belongs to one market. An RFT carries that Forecast from commitment through resolution. The Circuit connects each iteration without recreating the intent.
CIRCUITpersistent bounded intent
- 01MARKET 1 · BTC 15MForecast72% UPRFT · resolved evidenceDONE
- 02MARKET 2 · BTC 15MForecast64% UPRFT · policy evaluationCURRENT
- 03MARKET 3 · BTC 15MNext eligible market—new Forecast when it opensNEXT
FORECASTone belief about one market
RFTthe evidence trail of that belief
CIRCUITthe intent spanning many markets
Inside every market iteration
The intent stays the same. The market gets a new answer.
Each eligible Event Contract passes through the same sequence. The Circuit does not restart. It moves forward with a new piece of evidence.
- 01Market opens
A new eligible Event Contract enters the Circuit’s declared scope.
ELIGIBLE MARKET - 02Belief is stated
The Forecaster gives one probability before this market resolves.
FORECAST - 03Evidence is carried
The RFT preserves who believed what, when, and against which market.
RFT - 04Rule is applied
The Circuit checks its policy, limits, and stop conditions.
POLICY - 05Reality resolves
Trade or abstention remains separate from the final scored evidence.
RESOLUTION
Continuity needs clear responsibility
Different roles. One accountable flow.
No single agent gets to define the intent, invent the evidence, and act without a boundary. Each role has one job in the Circuit.
Supplies belief
Commits one probability for one market before that market resolves.
COMMITSKeeps it moving
Finds the next eligible market and progresses the Circuit without rewriting its rules.
PROGRESSESActs within bounds
Performs an allowed economic action only when the Circuit grants that authority.
OPTIONAL ACTIONTHE BOUNDARYThe Runner can keep the Circuit alive. It cannot change what the Circuit means.
After reality answers
The market resolves. The belief stays attached.
A Forecast is not replaced by the outcome. Its original probability, timing, market, and forecaster remain visible inside the RFT, now joined by the canonical result and score.
RFTOne evidence trail from commitment through resolution.
ILLUSTRATIVE EVIDENCE RECORDFINALIZED
COMMITTED BEFORE RESOLUTION72% UPForecast · Market 1 · BTC 15M
CANONICAL OUTCOMEUP
FORECAST SCORE0.0784
The score is derived after resolution. It does not rewrite the original belief.
The whole Circuit, in one line
Belief becomes evidence. Intent keeps going.
PRIOR connects the Forecast, the rule, the decision, and the result without pretending they are the same thing.
INTENT→MARKET→FORECAST→RFT→POLICY→RESULT↻NEXT MARKET
START WITH THE OBJECTFollow one Circuit from its intent to its next market.
WHAT THIS BUILD PROVES
It demonstrates bounded intent, attributable Forecast evidence, Circuit continuity, and deliberate refusal. Forecasting competence and autonomous economic execution are not established here.